Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview: 2025 NBA Playoffs series prediction, schedule, who to watch

The Denver Nuggets were pushed to a seventh game in the first round but shook off the ghosts of playoffs past to get the win. Their reward? Oklahoma City, 48 hours later. Here is everything you need to know.

When does the Nuggets vs. Thunder begin?

Denver travels to Oklahoma City for Game 1 of the series on Monday, May 5, with a 10:30 ET tip-off. This series plays every other day, up until a Game 7 when there would be a couple days of rest.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Playoffs Schedule 2025

All times are Eastern (* = if necessary)
Game 1: Nuggets at Thunder (Mon. May 5, 9:30 ET, TNT)
Game 2: Nuggets at Thunder (Wed. May 7, 9:30 ET, TNT)
Game 3: Thunder at Nuggets (Fri. May 9, 10 ET, ESPN)
Game 4: Thunder at Nuggets (Sun. May 11, 3:30 ET, ABC)
Game 5: Nuggets at Thunder (Tues. May 13, TBD, TNT)*
Game 6: Thunder at Nuggets (Thurs. May 15, TBD, ESPN)*
Game 7: Nuggets at Thunder (Sun. May 18, TBD)*

Player to watch: Michael Porter Jr.

While he doesn’t qualify as a “headliner” in this series, Michael Porter Jr.’s productivity will be key for Denver to win this series. And he was productive against the Thunder during the regular season. In four meetings, he averaged 20.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 3.8 three-pointers per game, shooting 45.3 percent from the field and 87.5 percent from the foul line. Interestingly, Porter shot far better on the road (54.8 percent) than at home (36.4 percent) in the regular-season series. He’s managed to play through his left shoulder injury and deserves credit. If Porter can be consistently productive as a scorer and rebounder, the Nuggets can pull the upset.
—Raphielle Johnson, Rotoworld basketball analyst

Keys to watch for in Denver vs. Oklahoma City

1) Jamal Murray vs. Thunder perimeter defenders

Nikola Jokic will get his. While Mark Daigneault and crew will study Jeff Van Gundy’s solid game plans against Jokic from the first round — with Isaiah Hartenstein trying to fill the Ivica Zubac role — the simple fact is Jokic is the best basketball player on planet earth right now and there is only so much any human being can do.

However, for the Nuggets to have a chance in this series, they need 2023 Jamal Murray to show up. That peak Murray appeared in spots against the Clippers — such as Game 4, when he had 43 points and 7 assists — but he has not been around consistently all season (or in the last series). Now Murray is going to have to do it with Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and other elite defenders focused on him.

2) Can Denver survive the non-Jokic minutes

The Nuggets' long-running issues when Nikola Jokic is off the court are no secret, and that played out again this past regular season with Denver having a -8.3 net rating when Jokic sat. In the first round of the playoffs against the Clippers, that climbed to a -26.4 net rating without Jokic. The Thunder are better than the Clippers, and if Oklahoma City can dominate the non-Jokic minutes at the level Los Angeles did or more, it will dig too deep a hole for Denver, even if those non-Jokic minutes are limited.

3) Battle of the MVP candidates

At some point during this series, the NBA will announce the winner of the MVP award for this season, and Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will finish 1-2, likely with Gilgeous-Alexander winning his first-ever award. That should light a fire under Jokic and the Nuggets.

As a side note, this could be a huge SGA series, the Nuggets don’t have a defender who can keep him out of the paint. While Denver will throw multiple players at SGA to slow him, that opens the door for Jalen Williams and others to step up for the Thunder.
—Kurt Helin, NBC Sports lead NBA writer

Predictions

Jay Croucher (NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst): Thunder in 6

With Christian Braun taking a leap and Jamal Murray healthier, this Nuggets team isn’t really any worse than last year’s team that entered the playoffs the clear favorite to win the West. Jokic provides the highest floor any offense can have, and Denver won’t be overwhelmed by OKC’s size.

But OKC are in a tier of their own in the West - the greatest net rating of all time speaks for itself. Expect Murray to struggle with the army of elite perimeter defender OKC can throw at him, and for the Nuggets to eventually run out of gas playing effectively a 6-man rotation.

Kurt Helin (NBC Sports lead NBA writer): Thunder in 5

There’s a segment of fans, as well as some scouts and front office people around the NBA, who still don’t believe in Oklahoma City as a contender. They see OKC as a regular-season team, not a playoff team, and think this is the series where OKC gets tested and probably exposed by a proven, championship squad. I say those people are about to eat… crow. The Thunder are real, they are deep, they defend at an elite level and can beat teams a lot of different ways.

I saw the Nuggets in person three times in the first round and came away thinking, “This is not a championship team this season.” Here is where Denver’s ride ends.