Scout’s Analysis: Why did James Hagens fall from No. 1 draft ranking?

At the 2024 U18 Men’s World Hockey Championship, Team USA forward James Hagens competed as an underage prospect and led the entire tournament in scoring with 9G-13A in seven games. He was named MVP of the tournament and became the most talked about player for the 2025 NHL Draft.

When Hagens started this season at Boston College, he was the consensus top draft prospect, but he’s been pushed off the perch by Erie Otters defenceman Matthew Schaefer and landed in the fourth overall slot on my year-end rankings. 

With all of the pre-season excitement and expectations surrounding Hagens the obvious question is: How and why did he fall to fourth in my rankings?

Healthy Competition

As everyone knows, evaluating prospects isn’t an exact science. Having said that, I’m confident in stating that Schaefer, forward Michael Misa (Saginaw Spirit), forward Caleb Desnoyers (Moncton Wildcats) and Hagens have top-of-the-lineup potential and are bound for solid NHL careers. Each one of these prospects excelled at different stages this year. 

The point is, a healthy competition developed over the course of the season. Each one of the players I mentioned gave me a reason to potentially rank them in the No. 1 slot for different reasons and at different times during this past season. The NHL is a hard league. Every day is a grind. Competing for top spot in a draft ranking provides a gateway into what to expect once these players, and several others, arrive in the league. 

First Line Upside

Hagens produced 11G-26A at Boston College and averaged over 19 minutes of ice time per game with the bulk of his shifts coming at even strength and on the power play. He also played a significant role for Team USA at the world juniors in Ottawa where he centred the Americans’ top line, skating between wingers Ryan Leonard (Washington Capitals) and Gabe Perreault (New York Rangers). Hagens contributed 5G-4A for the gold medal-winning American team. He was reliable in all three zones and finished plus-9 in seven tournament games. 

Hagens has fantastic vision entering the offensive zone and he’s deceptive with how he looks at the ice and distributes the puck.

Big time players find ways to impact the outcome of high leverage games. Here’s a clip that shows Hagens dissecting how a play is developing. He finds open space and pounces on the puck before tucking it home on the wraparound:

Growth Opportunity

Hagens had more than 900 shifts this season, mostly at even strength (819) and on the power play (129). He rarely was deployed on the penalty-kill, only seeing the ice for 19 shorthanded shifts the entire season. 

Every young player has room to improve their defensive detail. If they work hard off the puck, and are reliable in the defensive zone identifying their responsibilities, NHL coaches will trust them in a variety of roles. Hagens had a solid year defensively at even strength but, like all the prospects on my list, he experienced some growing pains on occasion. 

A couple of “coachable moments” occur in the following clips:

In the first sequence, Hagens does a nice job of tracking the play up ice against Northeastern and directs the defenceman to move the puck up the boards on his strong side. Hagens makes sure he’s above the play and nearly intercepts the puck in the neutral zone. Unfortunately for Hagens, it bounds off his shin pads and Northeastern goes on the attack. He’s in solid position defensively until he stops moving his feet and slides off his check, who goes to the net and cashes in on a rebound.

Winning face-offs in all three zones, and starting with the puck as a result, is crucial at the NHL level. Hagens employed a variety of strategies this season in an attempt to win more face-offs. It’s an area of his game that will be monitored closely and requires improvement. Hagens logs a lot of ice time and is tasked with winning more draws than depth forwards, but only won 45 per cent of his face-offs this season. 

At times, a lost draw can lead to late offensive zone exits. Here’s an example of Hagens trying to win an offensive zone draw by getting creative. Notice how he turns his blade over in an attempt to gain control of the draw for his group:

Splitting Hairs

I trust Hagens defensively at even strength. The game moves fast and mistakes are bound to happen occasionally, but he’s generally engaged the entire length of the ice in all three zones. But it’s his offence that wins out as his elite element.

Hagens projects as a top line forward who could be a point per game NHL player in time. The simple fact is that Schaefer, Misa and Desnoyers are also players with elite offensive upside and they are deployed in all situations – including the penalty-kill – which ended up being the difference for me as I built out my list. 

Conclusion

James Hagens remains one of the top prospects in this draft class. There’s no shame being inside the top five of an NHL draft ranking, even if he fell off a bit from the No. 1 overall ranking he held early this season.

Sooner than later Hagens will be plying his trade in the NHL and making the team that drafted him proud to call him their own when he’s making plays like this:

Hagens may not have held on to his pre-season and early-season ranking at the top of this year’s draft class, but it wasn’t because he had a bad season or caused any doubt about his NHL projection. It was just a tight competition at the top and the fact he’s still No. 4 indicates Hagens is a top tier player in this class and will be an exciting skater for some team to take.

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