Senators feeding off newfound success vs. reeling Maple Leafs
The Senators-Leafs series is going to six games — at least — and the shift in sentiment around the two teams has been seismic
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OTTAWA — Well, well, well. Isn’t this interesting?
The Senators-Leafs series is going to six games — at least — and the shift in sentiment around the two teams has been seismic. It’s as though the emotions and momentum in this Battle of Ontario playoff have been guided by tectonic plates.
Where does it shift next?
The beauty of a seven-game series is that it is long enough for true drama to play out. Room for growth. Room for deterioration.
If this were a first-round best-of-three from the 1970s NHL, it would have been over by now. Anthony Stolarz would have been hailed as a series hero instead of being questioned about seeing-eye shots that keep eluding him.
The need to win four games is a test of a team’s character, and the seven-game format allows a team to get up off the mat after a slow start. The Leafs have allowed Ottawa to recover from a 3-0 series deficit, and a Leafs four-minute man advantage in Game 4 overtime.
If you’re the Sens in this drama, you couldn’t dig a bigger hole if you were writing a sports drama for a Netflix series.
A lot of us imagined this series going six or seven games. But did anyone see it unfolding this way?
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Remember when broadcasters and podcasters were posting those negative Linus Ullmark career playoff numbers? Well, now factor in consecutive wins by Ottawa’s goaltender and a perfect save percentage off his 4-0 victory in Game 5.
If this were any ordinary matchup, the team ahead 3-0 and then 3-1 would be excused for those two hiccups in Games 4 and 5. The Leafs still lead this series, although it’s hard to tell that from the mood.
Because these are the Leafs with their closure anxiety (13 losses in 14 chances to close out a series!).
And these are the Sens with their hunger to beat their big brothers from Toronto, at last (0-4 lifetime in playoffs vs. the Leafs!).
So, every minute of every period comes packed with expectation.
How could things change so dramatically?
It can be a stroke of fortune, or perhaps call it the whim of a hockey god.
When Simon Benoit’s long shot got past Ullmark in overtime of Game 3, the goaltender said:
“Sometimes it comes down to Lady Luck. And with Lady Luck, you’ve got to earn it.”
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It got me wondering about the percentage of luck as a factor in a particular shot, in a game, in a series.
Historically, we all remember gaping nets missed and crazy shots that went in.
In this set-to, what if Auston Matthews, now heavily maligned for his scoring numbers in big games, had hit the inside of the post in Game 4 OT instead of the outside?
The Leafs might have scored first in Game 5 if the Calle Jarnkrok tipped shot had not hit his own linemate, Pontus Holmberg, near the goal crease.
On the flip side, what forces kept the puck out of the net when a David Perron shot hit the far post, veered along the goal line underneath Stolarz, drifted back toward the net before Morgan Rielly tucked it safely underneath his goalie?
And who says the Leafs had to score on two OT shots compared to Ottawa’s one?
Sure, the Leafs could’ve swept this series, but the Senators could also have it wrapped up by now with a slight shift in OT fortune.
So much has changed in a week. Stolarz has evolved from the guy conjuring the spirit of Johnny Bower at his playoff best to a suspect starter for Game 6 (Joseph Woll time?).
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Ullmark was the guy who couldn’t perform in the playoffs, and now he’s reminding us of Patrick Roy.
Early on, the Leafs’ power play was a sight to behold, close to automatic, winning key draws and sniping.
Now, Toronto seems as likely to give up a Sens shorthanded goal as to get one on the power play.
There’s been enough time for the Sens’ neophyte playoff performers to gain post-season experience and then thrive on that stage, almost overnight.
Time enough for the veteran Leafs — different and calmer under head coach Craig Berube everyone said — to stir up their old playoff demons.
It’s not a heavy boulder that the Leafs are pushing up the mountain, like Sisyphus.
It’s the weight of their own first-round history that rests heavily on their shoulders.
Matthews. Marner. Nylander. Tavares. So much money spent on the ‘Core Four.’
So little to show for it when the games matter most.
Welcome to Game 6 at the Canadian Tire Centre Thursday night.
Another chance for the Leafs to prove they’re not the choke artists that their history would suggest.
Another night where the Senators get to defy death and continue to put the finishing touches on their own bit of magnificent playoff history.
