Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Preview: Capitals vs. Hurricanes

The Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes, the first two teams to emerge from the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, are now poised to square off in Round 2. 

The Hurricanes became the first team to advance after dispatching the banged-up New Jersey Devils in a first-round series that was never particularly close. Save for the Devils’ Game 3 victory in double overtime, Carolina was confidently in control thanks to sound defensive play, excellent goaltending, and a well-rounded scoring attack. 

You could say the same about the Capitals, whose status as the Eastern Conference’s top squad was reinforced as they defeated the underdog Montreal Canadiens. It took just five games for Washington to move on, registering their first series victory since they won it all in 2018 — though, while the Capitals mostly maintained control against the Canadiens, Montreal tested them more than what the game scores might suggest. That should serve them well against Carolina.

There’s no love lost between these two Metropolitan foes — remember that brawl-filled April meeting in Raleigh? — but there isn’t much history here when it comes to post-season hockey, either. The two sides have met just once before, with the Hurricanes besting the then-defending champs in Round 1 of 2019. That series needed seven games to solve. And while a dozen points separated the division-topping Capitals and the second-seed Hurricanes in the regular-season standings this year, the season-series split and a statistical comparison suggests they’re staring down another series that could go the distance. 

Head-to-head records

Capitals: 2-2-0

Hurricanes: 2-1-1

PLAYOFF TEAM STATS

ADVANCED STATS

Regular season 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick

Capitals X-Factor: Dylan Strome

We highlighted Alex Ovechkin ahead of Round 1, and with four goals — including his first career playoff overtime game-winner — the Capitals captain more than lived up to X-factor expectations, sitting in a tie for third most post-season goals so far this spring. But perhaps no skater shone brighter in Washington’s first-round series than his linemate and top setup man, Dylan Strome. 

For a player whose previous post-season experience was limited to just two short springtime stints totalling 13 games, Strome certainly looks right at home in the playoffs. He’s scoring at an impressive 1.8 point-per-game pace, registering at least one point in all five games against the Canadiens with three multi-point efforts so far this post-season. He dished up helpers on all four of Ovechkin’s markers, and his nine points currently rank him tied for third most league-wide. He’s leading Washington in playoff assists (seven), points (nine) and power play production (three points) so far and is among the team’s most reliable face-off men.

Hurricanes X-Factor: Frederik Andersen 

Frederik Andersen was locked in against the Devils in Round 1, allowing just a single goal in back-to-back wins to open the series and registering an impressive .936 save percentage and otherworldly 1.59 goals-against average to help the Hurricanes drive the Devils to the edge of elimination. 

But doubt crept in late in Game 4 — not about Andersen’s ability, but about his availability after he left the matchup following a collision with Devils forward Timo Meier. He was labelled day-to-day with an undisclosed injury and did not dress for Game 5. Pyotr Kochetkov backstopped the Hurricanes to a series-clinching victory, stopping 31 of 35 shots for an .886 save percentage on the night, and while he’s no stranger to the No. 1 gig — he started 47 games in 2024-25, with Andersen sidelined nearly three months with a knee issue — Andersen brings an extra edge to Carolina’s lineup.

But will he be ready? That’s now the biggest question facing Carolina. That Washington quickly wrapped up their own series one night after the Hurricanes advanced, means the veteran doesn’t have much time to heal before Round 2. But the team got some promising news on Thursday when Andersen skated, and even better news when he practised on Friday. Andersen watch is officially on. 

Key stat: 100.00 

That’s the success rate of the Hurricanes’ penalty kill in Round 1, which on 15 opportunities through five first-round games did not allow the New Jersey Devils a single power-play marker. While Carolina’s PK prowess was no great surprise — the Hurricanes led the league in regular-season penalty kill percentage, with an 83.6 per cent success rate — their ability to nullify New Jersey’s third-ranked power-play was still quite the statement. Because not only did the Hurricanes stump one of the league’s top-rated PP units, they used their stifling structural play to flip the momentum New Jersey should’ve gained with the man advantage and left the Devils looking out of sorts. The Hurricanes also posted the fifth-highest power-play success rate of the post-season so far (six goals on 19 opportunities for a 31.6 PP%) for a truly dominant special teams performance.

So, how might we see this play out against Washington? Look at these teams’ season series and you can see Washington’s ability to outmanoeuvre Carolina’s PK at times. Three of their four regular-season meetings saw the Capitals strike at least once with the man advantage.

Overall, the Capitals posted middle-of-the-pack power-play numbers during the regular season with their 23.5 PP% and stayed true to that rating in Round 1 against Montreal, scoring three times with the man advantage for a 23.1 rate. Those numbers don’t jump off the screen, but the Capitals’ top PP weapon certainly does. Two of Ovechkin’s four first-round goals were scored on the power play, and both were major momentum markers — his first came in the first period of Game 1 to set the tone for Washington, and the second opened the scoring in Game 5 to put the Canadiens on their heels early in the elimination game. 

How Washington wins: Thanks to four regular-season meetings, including two down the stretch in April, the Capitals know as well as anyone that you cannot squander opportunities against the Hurricanes. No one is more proficient at dominating puck possession than the team in Raleigh, and their ability to clog up the neutral zone and bust up plays before they can even take shape makes for frustrating battles. 

Luckily for the Washington, the Capitals are an opportunistic bunch — and they’ll have to make them count in this series. A lopsided early-April meeting skews the series scoring in Carolina’s favour, but in reality, these offences have been pretty evenly matched in terms of goal-scoring. A major discrepancy in shot totals favouring Carolina reinforces the sense of urgency Washington should feel — Carolina doesn’t give up many looks, boasting shot suppression as one of their many strengths. 

The Capitals saw really strong production from their top-six in the first round, but will need to see more contributions from the bottom half of the lineup if they’re to break down that defence.  

And then there’s the man in the blue paint. Logan Thompson stumped the Canadiens early and often in Round 1, limiting Montreal to just 2.4 goals per game. Thompson has to be at his absolute best against a high-scoring Hurricanes squad, whose depth rivals Washington’s own. 

How Carolina wins: If defence really does win championships, you’ve got to like Carolina’s odds. Only one team was more effective than Washington at keeping the puck out of their own net — that’s the Hurricanes, who held the Devils to just 2.2 goals per game. 

But let’s talk about offence, because that, too, was excellent in Round 1. Carolina’s offence averaged the third-most goals scored per game (3.8) through the first round, and it wasn’t just the top six that showed up. Eleven different skaters scored at least one goal for Carolina through five games of the first round, with four defenders getting in on the action. 

Both the Capitals and Hurricanes are really good at dictating the pace, and we saw that in Round 1 as Washington slowed Montreal’s starts, allowed just one first-period goal all series, and Carolina largely shut down New Jersey’s offensive efforts. This could be a defence-driven series, and that suits the Hurricanes just fine. Dictate the pace and keep Washington’s power-play at bay, and Carolina could topple the division champs.