The Path, Part I: How Celtics can ‘thread the needle' with tweaks to core

The Path, Part I: How Celtics can ‘thread the needle' with tweaks to core originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Editor’s Note:As the Celtics enter a critically important offseason, Chris Forsberg is exploring three different paths Boston can take this summer, each with their own pros and cons for the short- and long-term future of the franchise.

Welcome to the Summer of Brad Stevens. All eyes turn to Boston’s president of basketball operations to steer a teetering Celtics ship, with 18 banners as its mast, through some suddenly murky waters.

Stevens must choose a path to charter after a disappointing end to the 2024-25 season that included superstar Jayson Tatum rupturing his Achilles as part of Boston’s second-round exit. 

Should the Celtics attempt to thread the needle with their current core? Should they slam the reboot button? Or can Stevens overhaul the core on the fly despite the financial limitations as the rent comes due for Boston’s splurge that delivered Banner 18?

In the first installment of our three-part series ahead of a potentially volatile offseason, we ponder the case for Boston threading the needle.

Objectives of this path:

• Get below the second apron by trimming $20-plus million in salary.
• Remain a tax-paying team, but limit the total spend.
• Keep much of the core intact … for now.
• Remain competitive in the East, even with Tatum out indefinitely.
• Identify and develop young, low-cost talent for rotation roles.

The road map:

• Trade Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser with limited financial return.
• Build a frontcourt with limited funds.
• Use draft assets to acquire young, low-cost talent.

Why this path makes sense:

Boston’s brass hasn’t been bashful in acknowledging this approaching reckoning. Changes were coming regardless of whether the Celtics repeated as champs. A new collective bargaining agreement, with its punitive second-apron penalties, will prevent teams from building sustainably expensive rosters.

In a twisted way, the Celtics have to cut costs in order to ensure they can remain competitive deeper into the future.

There’s a line of thinking that suggests Boston ought to try to trim payroll below the luxury tax line with a goal of eliminating long-term repeater penalties. But we suspect that, with a new, energy-filled owner in Bill Chisholm, the Celtics will stomach a more manageable tax bill with hopes of getting out of the tax further down the road. 

Why this path might not make sense:

Trading soon-to-be 35-year-old Holiday with $100-plus million remaining on his contract may not yield the best return among Boston’s roster players. Even moving his salary for limited financial return won’t be enough to ensure the team gets below the second apron. 

What’s more, if Tatum is going to miss some or all of the 2025-26 season, then it might make more sense for the Celtics to endure a more robust overhaul of the roster with the goal of getting all their finances in order.

What this path looks like:

We’ve previously laid out the financial constraints facing the Celtics this offseason. Boston is committed to roughly $228 million in salary for the 2025-26 season, and that’s before pondering the future of free agents Al Horford and Luke Kornet. The Celtics must trim roughly $20 million after roster construction in order to get below the second apron. 

Every member of the Celtics’ championship starting five is under contract for next season, and at monster money. The quintet of Tatum ($54.1 million), Jaylen Brown ($53.1), Holiday ($32.4), Kristaps Porzingis ($30.7), and Derrick White ($28.1) accounts for $198.4 million. The second apron starts at $207.8 million.

We all knew these tough decisions were coming. The Celtics got ahead of the CBA curve by trading for Holiday and Porzingis in the summer of 2023 and then extended both of them, while knowing the rent would come due in July 2025. Banner 18 made it a worthwhile dice roll. 

Now something has to give. The development of Payton Pritchard, who is playing on an uber-thrifty four-year, $30 million extension that will pay him $7.2 million in the 2025-26 season, makes it slightly easier to move a guard. 

Holiday’s trade value is hazy given his age and big money remaining on the deal. But he can absolutely help a playoff team, and there should be suitors. Holiday is a proven winner who will be desirable for any contender looking to inject some defensive DNA. 

But even in moving Holiday with limited return, the Celtics almost certainly will have to trim even more money, and that’s where it gets tough to retain Hauser. 

This summer, Hauser’s four-year, $45 million extension hits the books. His $10 million salary next season isn’t prohibitive, but it is for a Boston team that, even if it dips below the second apron this summer, still would have to pay roughly $5.5 for every dollar spent at its repeater rate. So, Hauser’s price tag effectively becomes $55 million for the 2025-26 season.

Hauser is a desirable shooter on a reasonable deal, which could leave a low-spending team willing to use its non-taxpayer midlevel exception to absorb him in exchange for draft assets. The Celtics would shuffle second-year swingman Baylor Scheierman into Hauser’s role and hope his shooting blossoms the way Hauser’s did over time in Boston.

With enough maneuvering, the Celtics can examine the possibility of bringing back Al Horford or Luke Kornet. Is the soon-to-be 39-year-old Horford willing to play on cheap money when Boston isn’t as much of a surefire contender without Tatum? Can the Celtics outbid any suitors to keep Kornet, who already took a discount to return to Boston on a minimum deal last summer?

Let’s make some deals:

A trade that seemingly makes sense for both sides — and was being theorized even before Boston’s season ended — would see Holiday land in Dallas in exchange for some combination of expiring deals, including Daniel Gafford ($14.4 million) and PJ Washington ($14.2 million). A third team would be involved in order to absorb money in the deal. 

Boston could retain Gafford to stabilize an uncertain frontcourt, while a team with options to absorb salary (perhaps Brooklyn with its cap space or Atlanta with its large trade exceptions) might take on Washington and other filler in exchange for draft assets from both Dallas and Boston. The savings in money from Holiday to Gafford is roughly $18 million next season.

Moving Hauser to a team with the non-taxpayer midlevel in exchange for draft assets would save Boston another $10 million next season. It would be difficult to move a homegrown asset who was key to a title run, but a Hauser trade would be one of the least painful ways for the Celtics to trim salary. 

The top of Boston’s 2025-26 depth chart, under this path, looks something like this:

• Ball-handlers: White, Pritchard
• Wings: Brown, Scheierman, Jordan Walsh, Tatum*
• Bigs: Porzingis, Gafford, Queta

*Injured

Boston could examine what it has for room below the second apron to fill out the roster. Maybe there’s space to squeeze in Horford or Kornet on limited funds. But the rest of the roster almost certainly would be minimum-salary players. 

The bottom line:

Threading the needle allows Boston to tread cautiously into a new season. A roster topped by Brown, White, and a healthier Porzingis still has potential to compete in the East.

If the Celtics got to the trade deadline and felt that 1) Tatum’s return would wait for the 2026-27 season and 2) Their team wasn’t a true contender without him, then they could take further steps to shed money by moving players on expiring deals like Gafford and Porzingis (ideally, when the latter’s trade value has been reestablished).

This path avoids a more immediate overhaul and gives the remaining core of this team a chance to show it can stay afloat without Tatum. The Celtics can also prioritize playing time for younger players while evaluating the pieces that will remain whenever Tatum is back on the floor.