Why Kirill Kaprizov could become the NHL’s highest-paid player

As enticing as this year’s class of pending unrestricted free agents is, led by intrigue about what Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner will earn next season, it’s hard not to peek ahead at the upcoming class of 2026 UFAs. 

It’s a big one, to say the least, headlined by Connor McDavid and other franchise cornerstones like Jack Eichel, Kyle Connor, and Kirill Kaprizov, among others, all of whom are extension-eligible this summer. 

Take all that star power and mix in a healthy hike in salary cap projections — up to $95.5 next season, then a big jump to $104 million in 2026-27, followed by $113.5 million in 2027-28 — and we’ve got the perfect formula for some truly game-breaking, market-setting contracts to be signed. 

And the biggest of all could belong to the man in Minnesota.

“There are people in the league who believe this will end up being the NHL’s highest-paid player,” Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said of Kaprizov earlier this week during an episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast. “That in this next wave of contracts, with the cap going up … Kaprizov is going to end up being No. 1 on the list.” 

It’s no big secret Kaprizov, 28, will be getting a significant raise. Wild owner Craig Leipold made that crystal clear during a pre-season media availability back in October, telling reporters that when it comes to the future of Minnesota’s operations, Kaprizov is, “going to be the focus of what we’re going to do.” And he had a bold declaration to go with it: “I will tell you, nobody will offer more money than us, or longer [years], so all we have to do is prove to him that we want to win,” he said. 

The term is, of course, a given — the Wild are the only team that can offer Kaprizov eight years. And the will to win? That’s been clear as well. 

The Wild were certainly aligned on that front this past season, spending much of the first half of the campaign atop the league standings before injuries hit — including to Kaprizov — and forced Minnesota into what was a thrilling wild card race. Minnesota then gave Vegas a run for its money in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, showcasing their depth and battle before they were ousted in six games at the hands of the Golden Knights, with Kaprizov closing out the round as the series’ top scorer. And during his media availability on the team’s locker cleanout day, Kaprizov indicated he was eager to stay. 

Wild GM Bill Guerin said extending Kaprizov was “priority No. 1” this summer, saying, “I’d like to get it done as soon as I can.” 

And he echoed ownership’s October sentiment:

“Nobody can offer him more than we can. What Craig said [in the pre-season] is true,” Guerin said. “I’m very confident we’re going to get a deal done with Kirill.”

What makes these upcoming negotiations that much more intriguing is the timing — in terms of the salary cap substantially increasing, the wealth of talent across the league due to hit UFA status alongside Kaprizov, and Minnesota’s own in-house outlook. This is the summer everyone in the state of hockey has been looking forward to, after all. When Guerin announced back in 2021 that the team was buying out the final four years of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise’s twin $98-million deals, they entered a tumultuous stretch of self-induced cap shackles, with the tightest years coming in 2023-24 and 2024-25. And we saw that play out on the Wild’s books, the pair of buyouts totalling just over $14.7 million this season and last. (That’s the equivalent of having Leon Draisaitl on your team, but sidelining him.)

We also saw Minnesota navigate those constraints masterfully by empowering younger, and less expensive, players to step into larger NHL roles, and locking up those core players early using term to the team’s advantage. 

With Parise and Suter now set to account for just $1.6 million through the next few seasons, the heavy-lifting complete, Minnesota is about to break free at the ideal time to hand over a significant chunk of change to one of the most talented players the franchise has ever had — and one who helped them win on the ice while the front office worked the books off it. In doing so, the Wild can send a message to the league that they are ready to go all-in to win. 

Also working in Minnesota’s favour right now is the fact that Guerin & Co. aren’t staring down a summer of extensions for other members of the core. Cornerstone players like Matt Boldy ($7 million per year through 2029-30), Joel Eriksson Ek (a steal at $5.25 million through 2028-29) up front and captain Jared Spurgeon ($7.575 million AAV through 2026-27), Jonas Brodin ($6 million AAV through 2027-28) and Brock Faber (whose eight-year extension, worth $8.5 million per, comes into effect next season and will see him through 2032-33) are all locked up. That’s a lot of cost certainty — and with a strong supporting cast, there’s no question who the biggest star is. Kaprizov will be paid accordingly.

Other teams with big negotiations on the horizon, meanwhile, famously have other mega-stars to accommodate — the Oilers, for example, will make McDavid their highest-paid player, but with Draisaitl also on the books the team will most likely be dedicating about 30 per cent of their cap space to two players; the Maple Leafs are in a similar situation with their core. While the Wild will have other negotiations on the horizon, their roster construction sets up Kaprizov to be the unquestioned franchise leader not just in on-ice production but in earnings. 

So, what might Kaprizov’s contract actually look like? 

In order to look forward at what his value might be, we need to look back at the most recent market-setting pacts.

Looking at comparable contracts according to AAV

When Kaprizov signed his five-year, $45-million deal just ahead of the 2021-22 season, it wasn’t a great time for players to cash in, considering that was the third year of a flat cap — the cap rose $2 million from 2018-19 to 2019-20, but growth was frozen in place with the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The NHL has made huge strides these past few years, with the game’s biggest stars taking turns upping the bar, all of which will be relevant comparisons for Kaprizov. 

When comparing AAVs around the league, Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews currently ranks at the top. The 2024-25 campaign marked the first of his four-year pact signed in August 2023, with Matthews taking the helm from Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon (eight years at $12.6 million each) as the league’s highest-paid player according to cap hit. (MacKinnon’s deal was the first to raise the bar since McDavid’s eight-year extension, and $12.5-million AAV, came into effect in 2018-19.)

There will be a new leader on the books this July when the massive eight-year, $112-million extension ($14 million AAV) Draisaitl signed back in September officially comes into effect for the 2025-26 season. With the cap rising and several stars due to sign, his time at the top will only last a year as the NHL enters a new era of AAVs likely hitting $15- and $16 million and beyond, which if Minnesota’s owner is true to his word will be a good place to start in talks with Kaprizov. 

Looking at contracts according to cap percentage

Kaprizov’s $9-million cap hit accounted for 11.04 per cent of the Wild’s salary cap when he signed for the 2021-22 season. (The cap was, at the time, stalled at $81.5 million.) Apply that same 11.04 percentage to 2026-27’s $104-million cap, for example, and it would amount to an AAV just shy of $11.5 million — well below market value for a player like him. 

The eight-year extension McDavid signed back in July 2017 was significant for many reasons, among them the fact he became the NHL’s first $100-million man since the CBA capped contract terms at eight years. His AAV counted for 15.72 per cent of the team’s allotted cap space ($79.5 million in 2018-19), which remains the highest percentage still today. MacKinnon and Matthews are a close second and third, respectively — MacKinnon’s deal accounted for 15.09 per cent of Colorado’s $83.5-million in cap space and Matthews’ was 15.06 per cent of Toronto’s this year with the ceiling having risen to $88 million. Draisaitl’s bar-setting AAV next season is higher than anyone’s but the increased salary cap means he’ll account for 14.66 per cent in 2025-26.

If 13 to 15 per cent is the new standard in terms of stars’ earnings as measured by cap percentage, let’s apply some of these same percentages to the 2026-27 cap projections.

Measure by the most recent comparable — Draisaitl’s 14.66 per cent — and you’re handing Kaprizov a deal worth about $15.25 million annually. Match McDavid’s league-topping 15.72 per cent from 2018-19 with Kaprizov’s earning potential beginning in 2026-27, and you’ve got an AAV coming in at $16.35 million.

Whatever the number ends up being — and whether Kaprizov can, in fact, lay claim to the title of the NHL’s highest-paid player — this summer is primed to be a league-altering off-season for the game’s biggest stars and the front offices writing their cheques. 

The incoming cap increases, and the many stars due for new contracts, will redefine the market as we’ve known it.

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