RosterResource Chat – 6/19/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat. Assuming the internet doesn’t break again in the middle of this like last week, we’ll be around answering as many questions as possible for at least 60 minutes. Here we go …

Tyler: Barring an injury, the Cubs have a roster crunch coming in the next couple of weeks when Shota Imanaga and Porter Hodge come off the IL. Only three pitchers on the 26-man have options remaining (Ben Brown, Cade Horton and Daniel Palencia), and I don’t see Horton or Palencia being taken out of their roles. Brown makes the most sense for Shota, but, Hodge has to go somewhere?

Jon Becker: I think you’re right that Brown’s days could be numbered. As for the other spot, Hodge himself could get optioned down depending on how his rehab assignment goes; I know he had that one awful outing skewing his stats but it’s not like he’s been perfect outside that game either.

Hazmat Corntail: Who’s your odds-on favorite(s) to stick in the Stros’ rotation as others come back: Walter, Gordon, Gusto?

Jason Martinez: All three have been equally effective and consistent as of late and there really aren’t any other factors involved. All have options remaining. Unless the eye test is showing something different, it’s a pretty equal competition right now.

Dan’l: How would you manage the Card’s roster leading up to the deadline? There are a lot of ok players at various ages, a couple mid-level prospects blocked (i.e. Saggese), and sort-of competitive this year but a realistic shot at (and in) the ’25 postseason is low.

Jon Becker: This has been my comp every time there’s a fringey team but if they’re closer to good than great I think they probably can still justify the 2022 Orioles path and sell off some guys like Helsley, Fedde, and Matz, none of whom factor into the 2026 roster on their current contracts anyway. If they’re firmly in playoff position I could see them buying to ease up that logjam, though I wouldn’t expect anything huge.

Guest: Noticed Xander Bogarts is pretty high on most projection systems. Do we really believe that or glitch in matrix?

Jason Martinez: The track record is still very good. His underlying numbers are good and it looks like he’s one of the unluckiest hitters in the league right now. And, at age 32, he shouldn’t have fallen off a cliff this quickly. So that’s what the projections are seeing and not overreacting to the stats thus far. Watching him pretty regularly, he looks bad. But so does that entire lineup aside from Machado. And that’s been the case for every season at Petco Park aside from 2024. Team slumps are common for a Petco Park team. Hitting a baseball is difficult enough and playing 81 games there is unforgiving. Not a lot of the baseball gods evening things out.

Guest: are teams still not great at telling their injured players who want to push through that it’s time? the Jays took forever with Santander and now the Twins with Ober. one injury is fine maybe, but they are/were both dealing with two!

Jon Becker: Not sure what’s been going on with Ober (I can’t find any reporting of anything he’s been dealing with), but yeah we knew Santander was hurt for a bit and he just didn’t go on the IL for awhile. In general, there are always a lot of factors to these decisions. Is the player in pain or just discomfort? Did he even tell the team he’s hurt? Who can come up to replace him? Is there risk of further injury? Teams are generally pretty careful but it’s also hard to force these competitors to take a break, too.

Phil: I’m hoping we can have some sober discussions of the Red Sox roster minus the caterwauling (not that I’m not sympathetic with the caterwauling, but as a fan, I’m not really going to just stop watching the team as punishment for a bad decision, so I feel ready to move on). What are some of their next moves, do you think? Is Campbell headed back to Worcester for a bit, and who gets those at-bats? Is there still a first baseman trade that might make sense, particularly given that they have some extra money now? I’m not even going ask about Yoshida–clearly either he’s hurt worse than we know or the Red Sox just don’t think he’s good enough to roster, or he’d be DHing in Worcester right now.

Jason Martinez: Before the season, I thought the Red Sox were in the best shape of any team in baseball (close with the Dodgers). I picked them to beat the Dodgers in the WS … https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-fangraphs-2025-staff-predictions/

Bad communication all around seems to have gotten them to this point where they traded Devers when they did and for who. Bad PR and a reminder that you can’t necessarily assume a former big leaguer will be a great communicator as a GM or that a professional baseball player is paying super close attention to every roster move and trying to make sense of it. But they’re playing pretty good baseball right now and they could be aggressive at the deadline. They have a legit ace, one of the best closers in baseball, and that lineup is deep, even if they lack some pop without Devers. Yoshida is a really good hitter and I think getting him back into the mix (maybe within the next few weeks) will help. Letting Campbell figure things out while he’s the No. 9 hitter is fine and sending him to AAA could also make sense at some point. When Bregman returns, Campbell might not be the 2B anymore and might not have that opportunity again in 2025 if Mayer establishes himself in the majors.

Jon Becker: I think sending Campbell down when he’s overall been okay (though rough defensively) and coming around lately would be a bit of an overreaction for sure.

Phil: Who gets squeezed out when Luke Raley comes back?  I suspect it will be Canzone, but I wish it would be either Tellez or Solano

Jon Becker: Canzone, Mastrobuoni, and Young are the three guys with options, so I think it would be one of them, and Canzone is the most redundant, being an outfielder. Tellez wouldn’t shock me since Raley could step in at first; Solano would since he’s been hitting better of late and they love platooning.

Guest: which team(s) have surprised you the most so far?

Jason Martinez: It probably shouldn’t be a surprise but the Astros continuing to just be way better than any team in that division no matter which superstar player leaves and no matter who gets hurt is amazing. Winning culture is a real thing, as long as there is a strong core of veterans who have been there through all the winning. And they’re one of those teams that has a sneaky good farm system.

Padres looking like the 2023 version of themselves is also surprising. I thought this team and the front office had finally figured out how to succeed at Petco Park last season. Maybe the baseballs changing again is a big part of it — balls aren’t flying as far and MLB acknowledged that the baseball are different. But it’s a really bad roster right now and they’re not even trying to shake things up. Giants did a minor shakeup — Wade DFAd, Dom Smith and Daniel Johnson promoted — and it worked out pretty well, even if just temporary. Unplugging things and plugging them back in can help at times.

Nick: Is this the year the Phillies trade for a solid RH OF bat? I know they need a reliever too, but so does everyone so that’s not as interesting to talk about. They’ve had a hole in CF (and sometimes LF) for years now

Jon Becker: It’s a tough fit unless they’re going to give up on Kepler or Marsh starting against righties along with lefties, against whom they’ve already sat plenty, and I don’t see that happening. Sure, they could trade for a platoon bat but how much better than Rojas/Kemp/Sosa are those options anyway? Maybe they swing bigger by including Marsh in a trade for a righty, but that’s just me spitballing.

Jpac: Which is the better option for projections (any proj. System) ros or update?

Jason Martinez: ROS only shows projected stats for the remainder of the season (80ish games). I believe “update” shows actual to date + ROS.

Jim: When Wilyer Abreu returns from the IL, do you think he plays every day with Refsnyder getting at bats at DH?

Jon Becker: Absolutely. I think Duran will be in LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu/Refsnyder RF, Anthony DHing — but they’ll do some mixing and matching so Anthony gets to play the field (they can add another lefty by sitting Rafaela for Hamilton and shifting Campbell to the OF).

Peter: Do you think Brady House establishes himself as a solid regular for the Nats this season?

Jason Martinez: There’s no one standing in his way and the Nats have every reason to look ahead to 2026 and figure out who else besides Wood and Abrams will be part of their future. So far, so good (only 14 PA). But the BB/K numbers in AAA (much improved from 2024 but still not great) tell me he could struggle making adjustments once he’s not locked in. If he plays solid defense, I think they’d be happy if he was a 25 HR/.800 OPS guy. Not sure he’s more than that.

Taco Grande: Helsley has the 168th rated WAR for relievers since May 15. ERA above 5, BABIP over .400 with a hard hit at 40%. SIERA and XFIP in the 2s. So some reason to think he could be better, but how much more leash will the Cardinals give him?

Jon Becker: I think plenty, especially with the peripherals looking good, as you noted. A month isn’t a lot of time for a reliever to put together a particularly meaningful sample size and it’s not as if the Cards have someone banging on the door for the job anyway.

Hazmat Corntail: With Misoiorowski up and the rest of the current Brewers rotation seemingly locked in, it’ll take an injury or them falling out of the WC for Henderson to get another shot this season, yes?

Jason Martinez: Correct. If Woodruff makes it back, Henderson would likely be SP7. Maybe SP8 if Nestor Cortes also returns. But the chances of 2 or 3 SP landing on the IL at some point is still pretty high so I wouldn’t rule him out. They have to feel pretty good knowing they can pencil him in for 2026 and have him under team control for 6 years.

Guest: barger’s had a couple mini-dips since may, another bigger one will come eventually, but how much more does he have to do to be safe even thru that on a healthy jays team

Jon Becker: There still ought to be plenty of time for him even when/if Santander and Varsho are both back and everyone’s healthy; he’d just play more third base instead of right field. Clement has been awesome against lefties and pretty bad against righties so that makes a lot of sense as a platoon.

James: Is the Cam Smith breakout underway?

Jason Martinez: He made it through a few rough patches early on and he now has a 146 wRC+ over his last 124 PA. His team has opened up a nice lead in the AL West. I’m guessing the confidence is high and he’s showing signs of him becoming an impact bat in the 2nd half. Good example of why you stick with a young player. But I think that specific team in that situation has been a big part of it. It never become obvious that he had wasn’t going to figure it out in the majors as happens frequently with young players.

Jon Becker: He’s also been great in the outfield despite never playing there before this year, so he’s shown quite the knack for rolling with the punches and making adjustments.

Mike D: Any chance Angels move Detmers back to rotation this season?

Jon Becker: Not a zero percent chance, but he’s been working as a one-inning guy for a majority of the season and doing really well at it, so it would be hard to stretch him out and also maybe not very prudent to mess with what’s working. If they need another starter I’d think they’d dip into the minors for Dana or Ryan Johnson.

Guest: Shaw is looking like a 5-10 HR guy right now, do we think there’s something there in the offseason (or even another demotion possible this year) to get to the FV power that was prospected?

Jason Martinez: Cubs are in position to give Shaw another month to evaluate him before deciding if they need to upgrade at 3B. So he shouldn’t feel too much pressure at this point and he definitely can’t start trying to hit HR. Or maybe he’s already feeling pressure and trying to HR and that’s why he’s struggling.

Guest: presumably a blip for the Yankees but why does it feel like they’re going to keep having issues vs RHP especially down the line? still have a season 117 wrc+ v rhp

Jon Becker: Probably because you could certainly argue there’s more negative regression coming than there is positive, and some of that negative regression is already hitting during this losing streak. That said, Stanton and Chisholm being back certainly helps and allows them to play the hot hand more.

Jay: Who is going to lose the most AB in the Yankees lineup with Stanton back?

Jason Martinez: In the first 3 games since Stanton’s return (all vs RHP), 4 players played every game and 5 players played in 2 of 3 games. Today, facing a LHP, Rice and Dominguez are out. No surprises so far. Could change based on who’s hot/who’s not, but that’s a pretty fair balance as of now.

Thank you: Whats a challenge trade – Ben Rice for a 2B/3B?

Jon Becker: Rice is really good and has five years of club control left after this one, so the acquisition cost would be really high, someone who’s an undisputed solid starter at one of those positions. Can’t think of a perfect fit off the top of my head but he’s really good, is the point!

tslammer: Any new playing time projections for Hyeseong Kim in light of the remarks Roberts said about Conforto and Kim?

Jason Martinez: I usually don’t make a big shift all at once unless there’s an injury or a manager says specifically that “Player A will now be a full-time player and Player B will be on the bench”. In this case, I had already been moving Kim up/Conforto down over the past few weeks based on the numbers/playing time trend. Then it seemed that Kim had finally overtaken him (he started Game 1 in a big series at Petco Park vs the Padres) but Roberts went right back to Conforto the next day and ever since. I’ll be keeping a close eye before I move it again from where I currently have it … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=22

Kevin: How would you go about improving the offense if you were the Rangers? There’s not much help available in the high minors.

Jon Becker: I think if I’m them I just have to keep it as-is and hope it works itself out? A lot of money and/or significant trades all over that offense so not really obvious candidates to sit. It just seems like whenever someone gets going, two guys start slumping in his place. Not a fun cycle.

Chase Burns: When am I getting the call?

Jason Martinez: A few different factors here. Burns had 100 IP last season for WF and did not pitch in the minors after signing. He’s at 66 IP this season. What’s his limit? Maybe 125IP? He can probably be pitching in meaningful games thru August. Probably not beyond.

Once Hunter Greene returns, they’ll have 6 starters ahead of Burns. Miley is fine as the SP5 but not standing in the way of a talented prospect like Burns. Martinez is fine in the rotation but also capable of pitching out of the bullpen if necessary.

Reds are a legit Wildcard contender. As long as that’s the case, I think having Burns pitch meaningful games in July/August is a strong possibility.

Jason Martinez: Thanks for joining us today! We’ll be back next Thursday at the same time. Enjoy the rest of the week.