Western Conference Final Preview: Oilers vs. Stars
For the second year in a row the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers will meet in the Western Conference Final. Who will move on for a chance at the Stanley Cup in 2025? Ryan Dixon breaks down both teams in our series preview.
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Welcome to our first Western Conference Final rematch since 2014.
Like the Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings 11 years ago, the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars will meet for the second straight spring in 2025. This is Dallas’ third straight trip to the West final and fourth in six years dating back to the “bubble playoffs” in 2020.
The Oilers — themselves in the West final for the third time in four years — got the better of Dallas last spring, downing the Stars in six games to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. That series was bookended by Connor McDavid scoring a double-overtime winner in Game 1, then weaving through Stars defenders to net a stunning power-play tally to open the scoring in what turned out to be a 2-1, series-clinching victory in Game 6.
The unique thing about this rematch is the hunger factor must be off the charts for both clubs. When the Hawks and Kings met in 2014, both clubs were riddled with players wearing championship rings from recent titles.
In this case, though, neither team has been able to get over the hump despite consistent strikes into the playoffs’ late stages. Edmonton, of course, fell one win shy of its ultimate goal last June, while Dallas would surely love to avenge last year’s loss to the Oilers and make the final for the first time under coach Pete DeBoer.
Head-to-Head Records
Edmonton 1-2-0
Dallas 2-1-0
PLAYOFF TEAM STATS
ADVANCED STATS
Playoff 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick
Oilers Unsung Hero: With shutdown defenceman Mattias Ekholm sidelined — and expected to miss at least the first two games of the WCF — some Oilers defencemen have had to step up in a big way. Brett Kulak, who averaged 16:30 during Edmonton’s run to the Cup final last year, is seeing eight more minutes per night this time out at 24:15. These are not cupcake minutes by any stretch, either, with 15.3 per cent of Kulak’s shift starts — most among Oilers defencemen — coming in the defensive zone.
Meanwhile, trade deadline pickup Jake Walman — who had a grand total of one playoff game on his career resume before this spring — has been seeing over 20 minutes per night and is a team-best plus-13 in the post-season.
That’s impressive work for two members of the blue line corps that have either never been in this position before or previously only played a supporting role during the playoffs.
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Stars Unsung Hero: Like Edmonton, Dallas has had to do without a top defenceman for much of the playoffs, though Miro Heiskanen returned from knee surgery in Game 4 of the six-game win over Winnipeg in Round 2. In the 10 games the Stars played without Heiskanen, however, Cody Ceci skated 22:54 per night. The only guys on the team who saw more action during that span were Thomas Harley (27:11) and Esa Lindell (25:00).
Like Walman, Ceci was a trade deadline season pickup expected to play a supporting role on the back end. Unlike the former, though, Ceci landed with all kinds of post-season experience, including 52 games’ worth with the Oilers from 2022 through last year’s run to the final. Ceci’s role will recede a bit with Heiskanen back in the fold, but the big, right-shot defender will remain an important figure on the Dallas blue.
Oilers Key Playoff Moment
Edmonton was down 0-2 in its first-round series versus the Kings and trailed 4-3 with fewer than seven minutes to go in the third period of Game 3 when Evander Kane put a puck behind Kings goalie Darcy Kuemper. After review, it was determined Kane did not kick the puck into the net. However, L.A. coach Jim Hiller made a decision that, even in the moment, seemed peculiar when he opted to challenge for goalie interference.
As everyone outside the Kings coaching staff expected, it was determined Kuemper was not interfered with. With the game now tied 4-4, Edmonton went on the power play thanks to the failed challenge and just 10 seconds after Kane had squared the affair, Evan Bouchard deposited a power-play marker that gave the home team the lead. Two empty-net goals later, Edmonton had a 7-4 victory and are 8-1 since dropping the first two games of the second season.
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Stars Key Playoff Moment
Dallas played Game 7 of Round 1 on home ice and, 31 seconds into the third period, the Stars watched Nathan MacKinnon stake the visitors to a 2-0 lead Colorado seemed destined to uphold.
That’s when the legend of Mikko Rantanen, Dallas STAR, was truly born. Playing against his former team, Rantanen drew Dallas even with two clutch goals, then picked up an assist on Wyatt Johnston’s power-play game-winner with just 3:56 to go in the third. To top it off, Rantanen sealed the win with an empty-netter that gave him a hat trick and an instant place in Stars playoff lore.
With that, Dallas survived Round 1 without the services of both Heiskanen and Jason Robertson. Now, with both players back in the fold, it is trying to make the final.
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Oilers Win If…
They keep playing like they’re the 1995 New Jersey Devils.
OK, that’s a little extreme, but the idea the Oilers would close out the Vegas Golden Knights by blanking them in Games 4 and 5 — with Stuart Skinner in goal, no less — was not something anybody had on any bingo card. Fair or not, we often default to a view of the Oilers as that all-over-the-place squad that had wild games versus the Kings in Round 1 — erasing a 5-2 deficit late in Game 1 only to give one up with 42 seconds left in the frame; pulling out that crazy 7-4, Game 3 victory — rather than a playoff-style team that can squeeze the life out of opponents.
But there’s a reason McDavid bristled at a reporter’s question about proving his team can play defence in the aftermath of Edmonton eliminating Vegas. Go back to last year’s West final versus Dallas and you’ll find Edmonton — down 2-1 in the series — won three straight games while holding the Stars to two goals in Game 4 and one apiece in Games 5 and 6. The Oilers have defended well at the biggest moments and if, between Skinner and Calvin Pickard — who could be ready to go by Game 3 or 4 versus Dallas — Edmonton gets adequate goaltending, the Oilers could well make a second straight appearance in the Stanley Cup final.
Stars Win If…
The secondary scoring comes alive.
It’s all well and good that Rantanen is having a playoff showing for the ages, but it’s a little troubling he’s got nearly double the points — 19 to 11 — that the second-highest scoring Dallas forward (Roope Hintz) has. Matt Duchene has zero goals and just five assists so far; Tyler Seguin scored in Games 2 and 3 of the first round and has not found the net in 10 contests since; Jamie Benn has one goal and three points in 13 games. The top line can lead the way, but the Stars support staff — which looks fantastic on paper — must come through if Dallas is to find a way past the Oilers.
